There's no Cinderella, and other keys to picking bracket winners

Louisville is the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA basketball tournament, but who are you picking to win it all? (Elsa / Getty Images / March 16, 2013)

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Think any team can win the NCAA basketball tournament? Think again. A columnist shares his time-tested secrets to navigating March Madness with success.

I know the look. For the last three decades, every year at this time, I get the look.

A friend or family member will slowly approach with a piece of wrinkled paper, a chewed-off pencil and a wistful stare. It's always someone who doesn't follow sports. It's often someone who doesn't know whether a basketball is inflated or stuffed.